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ENGLISHThe Start of Negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova - a Candy Given...

The Start of Negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova – a Candy Given to a Child Sent to Steal Cherries from an Orchard Guarded by Armed Forces

1. George Simion, the AUR leader, was a special guest to the festival organized in Atreju by Giorgia Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy). On this occasion, George Simion spoke on the panel ”The Europe we must defend: conservative motives against the European superstate”.

The event in Atreju, bringing together the leaders of European conservatives and reformists, confirmed Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s PM, as leader of the European Coalition of Sovereigntists.

This position of Giorgia Meloni explains George Simion’s bet on his special relationship with the head of Fratelli d’Italia. In the perspective of the 2024 European parliamentary elections, the formation and strengthening of a Coalition against what the panel at Atreju called “the European superstate” can be envisaged. Sovereigntist forces in Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, Hungary, Austria, labeled by opponents as far-right, even fascist, forces – tagging widely used in the old days by communists for whom any political opponent was “fascist” – are working towards a huge victory in the European Parliament elections against the dictatorship of the Brussels bureaucrats, fully embodied by Ursula von der Leyen. Opinion polls and even elections in EU countries show a spectacular increase in these forces. Naturally, the socialists and liberals, replacing the old times communists, are blaring the sirens to warn the citizens of what they call the dangerous ascent of the far right. The trick was effectively used against the Fratelli d’Italia party in the electoral campaign. The party won the early elections and Giorgia Meloni became prime minister. It has been over a year since the elections. Nothing Meloni did during this period confirmed the alarm signals sounded by the socialists and liberals. Not even as far as illegal migration is concerned. Giorgia Meloni did not cut a solitary figure in the context of an EU increasingly concerned about the “new invasion of barbarians”.

The electoral growth of sovereigntist forces is rooted in the European citizens’ need for change. The current leaders of European countries have demonstrated their inability to govern their countries during increasingly troubled times. In sovereigntist leaders, European citizens can see a different type of ruler than those of today. In any case, they are not perceived as a danger to democracy, because they are not.

George Simion’s participation in the event alongside prominent conservative figures, ranging from Elon Musk to the British Prime Minister, demonstrates his desire to secure his party internally (as the SDP and NLP have plans to outlaw AUR in accordance with the template used by Maia Sandu in the Republic of Moldova) by ensuring solidarity from a Great Power such as Italy and even other sovereigntist forces from the EU. The affiliation with Meloni also benefits AUR by making it an acceptable party (it is recognized and even embraced by the ruling party in Italy!), allowing it to gain worldwide recognition. Furthermore, AUR ensures, for the purposes of the European elections, a significant sympathy capital from the Romanian Diaspora in Italy.

We would be wrong to assume that AUR is the sole victor in this arrangement. Giorgia Meloni, the EU’s sovereigntist leader, also wins. Sovereigntist forces are hoping for a big win in the European elections. For this purpose, the number of MEPs on behalf of the sovereigntists must be significant. AUR is a well-rated party in Romania in the context of European Union Parliament elections. Therefore, the Coalition of Sovereigntists needs the presence of AUR in its ranks.

2. The United Right Alliance, consisting of the SRU, the PMP and the Right Force, has officially been launched.

Although less emphasis has been placed on this, the United Right Alliance is an electoral partnership. According to the Electoral Code in order to enter the Parliament it is necessary, in the case of three parties, to get 9% of the votes. For the European Parliament 8% is needed.

As a political force of the Opposition, the Alliance will have a much more serious word to say than all the three parties taken separately. As an election force, things get tougher. In opposition, up to the elections, the Alliance will obviously have a greater capacity to make itself noticed on the political and especially the media scene, in comparison with the Power. Only that the designation of the main opponent as SDP is bonkers. The alliance is called the United Right. The coalition with the SDP dramatically reduces the NLP’s claims to embody the Right. Under these circumstances, the empty nest should be occupied by the United Right. Therefore, the main target of the campaign should be the NLP, on the grounds that it does not represent the Right. Making SDP the main target helps the NLP to embody the Right, both by bypassing the attacks and by focusing criticism on the SDP.

From an electoral point of view, the Coalition is a failure.

SRU could win the EU Parliament elections on its own. Not exactly scoring 23% as it did in 2019, but a substantial percentage anyway. This is because the SRU is regarded by our electorate as being completely in favor of the EU. At European Elections, the alliance with the PMP and the Right Force will not bring SRU any extra points. The Common List recently presented already reveals a spectacular abdication of the SRU. At Parliamentary and Presidential elections, the Alliance must present itself as a coherent entity through a sole message rather than as a three-party squabble.

Will the three leaders of the Coalition be able to summon a unique voice?

For the time being, they seem so.

The experience of previous coalitions highlights the need for a guiding party and a leader as such.

Will the PMP and the Right Force accept to be led by Cătălin Drulă?

3. The European Council decided to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova.

History doesn’t record “What it would have been if…”. Talking about the History of the Moment, we can still ask ourselves:

Had it not been for the War in Ukraine, would the two countries have had the chance to start negotiations?

Definitely not. Ukraine and Moldova are at an astronomical distance from fulfilling the conditions and being candidates for accession. Let away starting negotiations.

Why has the beginning of negotiations been decided?

Ukraine and Moldova are considered spearheads in the conflict between the West and the Russian Federation. Not without sacrifices from the peoples of both countries.

The decision to start negotiations is intended as a reward for these sacrifices.

And also, a nudge for other countries to join the coalition against Russia in exchange for EU membership.

The decision in Brussels does not automatically mean the start of negotiations as such.

It has the meaning of a candy given to a child that you sent to steal cherries from an orchard guarded by armed forces.

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